Killing an Iranian General
Overtly, assassinating Iranian General Qasem Soleimani seems justifiable. He was definitionally a terrorist and had no regard for life, saying he would kill 100 innocents to get to one target. The White House has stated Soleimani was: (i) killed “to protect against a war, not to cause one” and (ii) plotting “imminent sinister attacks on Americans.” Well, if the White House’s claims of imminent attacks are true, those attacks might well be attempted anyway, since they were “imminent.” If false, and there were no such attacks planned, there will be now. Iran already has promised retaliation and I think we all take Iran at its word. (For whatever it's worth, despite the President’s proclivity to lie, I actually think he’s telling the truth this time.) But regardless, now that Soleimani is dead, things are about to get real ugly, because after Iran retaliates, we must assume the U.S. will then step it up another notch against Iran. The dominoes are falling.
Some questions and thoughts: The Iranian people love a good war. The Iran-Iraq War, which accomplished next to nothing, lasted 8 years and tens of thousands of Iranian soldiers literally carried their own coffins to the front line. We just lit the Iranian’s fuse. We killed a hero of the Iranian Shiite fundamentalists who believe their best ticket to heaven and Allah is to kill us, the “infidels,” or die trying. Either way works for them. They can’t f-in’ wait to fight, die and get to heaven! Even the Russians and Chinese don’t think like that. Thankfully, Iran doesn’t have a navy to attack us with, but we have certainly shown a willingness to put our troops all over the Middle East, including Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Syria. I bet we all can’t wait to potentially have our sons and grandsons go off to fight in Iran, especially after having just come off being 0-2 against Iraq and Afghanistan?
It has long been rumored that the Iranians have planted sleeper cells in the United States and throughout Europe. That should not surprise anyone. Our intelligence services are excellent, but don’t underestimate the Iranians’ capability to reign terror almost anywhere in the world. They’ve been sponsoring and executing terrorist acts since the Mullahs' overthrew the Shah.
Would anyone be surprised if Iran retaliated against its other sworn enemy, Israel? If so, there is no chance that Israel, which has been fighting for its survival since 1948, would do anything less than retaliate even more severely against Iran. They must. The big question is would Iran launch its missiles that have the range to reach Haifa and Tel Aviv. Are they sophisticated enough that they can hit specific targets in Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem? If so, then I would expect Israel to attack Tehran. Once anything starts between Iran and Israel, how does that get shut down??? Would all of this potential battle spur into action the longstanding threats by Hezbollah of attacking Israel from the north? Would Syria attack over the Golan Heights? What about Hamas and Islamic Jihad simultaneously effecting terrorist attacks in the streets of Israel? Indeed, Israel has made it no secret that they’ve been planing and training for a war against its enemies on all of its borders. As a proud and ardent Jewish Zionist, with family in Israel, this thought scares the hell out of me.
Incidentally, then what happens with Saudi Arabia who hates Iran as much as or more than Israel, and is now actually allied with Israel on many fronts?
What about our NATO alliances? Did the President give our allies, with whom relations are the worst since NATO’s formation, a head’s up about the General’s assassination? What if Iranian retaliation occurs on British, French or German soil? How will those countries respond? Where are the Russians and Chinese going to line up on this? I could see them sitting out a round or two of violent volleys between the US and Iran, but if this fight takes on a life of its own, they’re not siding with us, regardless of whatever that Trump/Putin relationship is all about.
Finally, this situation has all the criteria to become highly politicized by those in Washington. This crisis needs to be managed with candor and honest bipartisanship, something that neither party has done well. To our elected officials in Washington, both Democrats and Republicans alike, drop the finger pointing. Work together. Show leadership.
The assassination by the United States of the second most powerful man in Iran, one of our worst enemies, is the most dynamic/dangerous international relations event I can remember seeing the U.S. in since the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Imagine how we’d respond if they did something like that to us? How would we respond?) Our collective best hope is that this situation doesn’t escalate to a major regional war, or worse, a world war, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. So consider: These next few days or weeks might well be either the President’s greatest success, or perhaps, his biggest failure. Let’s really hope and pray that he got this one right, and that this decision does protect against a war, and doesn’t start one.