Meltdown in Israel
The Israeli Iron Dome intercepting Hamas rockets. (Image: IDF)
What a mess in Israel! Not since the Palestinians’ second intifada, that ran for five years ending in September 2005, has there been such violence in the country, causing consternation worldwide. Underlying the bloodshed were the machinations of Hamas, tied to the then scheduled Palestinian elections, and more about that below.
Like dominoes falling, a number of events led to this extreme violence. The first incident started only weeks before the Palestinians’ first scheduled election in over 15 years. Starting March 13th continuing through March 17th, a popular Palestinian TV show, The Tune of the Homeland, repeatedly broadcast the pro-terror song, “My Machine Gun Is In My Hand,” in which the lyrics encourage Palestinians to attack Israelis with rifles, cleavers, knives and to detonate suicide belts. Around the same time, the “Attack a Jew” TikTok challenge circulated through the West Bank, which encouraged Palestinians to do exactly as the challenge’s name implies and then upload the attacks to the social media platform as a means to encourage others to follow suit and participate in the viral challenge. Shortly after, a group of young Palestinians attacked a group of Hasidim Jews without provocation.
Following that was the bad timing of the riots arising from the eviction of seven Palestinian families from homes they have occupied in some cases for up to seventy years, in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah. The Israeli Supreme Court quickly stepped in and continued a hearing that would resolve the issue to an undetermined point in time. I cannot estimate the legal arguments on the eviction claim, but optically, taking anyone’s home that they’ve lived in for generations feels wrong. Unfortunately, completely unhelpful to the situation, Hamas, which controls Gaza, fired at least 45 rockets on Monday towards Jerusalem. Of course that terrorist group knew Israel would retaliate, and it did, with airstrikes that killed three Hamas operatives, and sadly, children.
To make matters worse, this was also the same time as Ramadan was concluding, creating an absolute powder keg situation and violence exploded on the Temple Mount, or Haram al-Sharif as named by Islam, in front of the revered Al-Aqsa mosque. With photographers and television cameras rolling, what location could better stir worldwide public emotion, than to present bloody, violent conflict between the Palestinians and Israeli police? But what the worldwide press has not focused on is that photographs taken right before the violence began show a huge mound of rocks sitting inside the mosque! We’ve all seen the subsequent photos of rocks being thrown by Palestinians and then, rocks lying everywhere around the Temple Mount. I’ve been on that platform numerous times and it is always kept pristine, as it should be. Why would anyone bring an arsenal of rocks into Al-Aqsa to begin with, unless they were looking for trouble? How did the rocks even get up there?
In past years, Hamas has sent limited range mortars over the Israeli border that were moderately destructive, being not much more than sophisticated pipe bombs. This week, however, Hamas launched nearly 2000 rockets and missiles throughout Israel, constructed with parts provided by Iran. Case in point: Tel Aviv was totally shut down yesterday. As to Israel’s retaliatory bombing, no one wants the loss of innocent civilian life in Gaza, especially children, but Israel (like every country), has the right to defend its people and borders and to strike back against the enemy. In this instance, critically, Hamas is a terrorist organization. Even President Biden made clear that Israel’s reaction was appropriate. Noteworthy is that the two tall buildings in Gaza you may have seen collapse after two Israeli bombs hit it, was a Hamas media and operations center. You may not have known that Israel actually gave notice for everyone to vacate the building to avoid a loss of life, and thus, what was destroyed was the Hamas physical infrastructure being used against Israel. Moreover, have you noticed that everything has been totally quiet in the West Bank? No riots. No bombings. So, this is not a battle waged by Israel against the Palestinian people. It is a war against Hamas who instigated this situation including Israel’s response.
This is where Palestinian politics come in. There has been a longstanding power struggle between Hamas and Fatah to control the Palestinian people. The last Palestinian elections were held in 2006, resulting in a civil war between Fatah and Hamas, whereby ultimately Fatah, led by Mahmoud Abbas took charge of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and Hamas was given control of Gaza. No Palestinian elections have been held since then. Cooperation between Fatah and Hamas is virtually nonexistent. Nonetheless, for some reason, at the beginning of this year, Abbas scheduled parliamentary elections for May 22, 2021 and presidential elections on July 31, 2021. After the Sheikh Jarrah eviction riots, Abbas cancelled those elections for now, blaming Israel. But Hamas’ goal has been to show the Palestinian people that they are stronger than Fatah, and to not just take full charge of the Palestinian Authority, but also, to become part of the PLO.
Here’s where it gets interesting. In this past March, polling confirmed what Abbas already knew; that he was unpopular and Fatah was losing. First, only 23% of voters thought Abbas to be the best Fatah candidate. Second, 57% of voters support a joint Fatah-Hamas list of candidates for the parliamentary election, which should that occur, practically makes Fatah irrelevant. Third, stunningly, the highest polling numbers support Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the first and second intifada who sits in an Israeli prison with five consecutive life sentences for orchestrating deadly terrorist attacks against Israel. Abbas also loses to current Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
However, the polling also showed: (i) because of the blockade over the Gaza Strip, (ii) concerns over worsening economic conditions, especially in Gaza, and (iii) concern about the reaction from the international community about Hamas leading the Palestinians, there is the prospect that public attitudes could shift in favor of Fatah. So put yourself in Abbas’ shoes. With an election in the near future, as the leader of the Palestinians in the West Bank watching the hell going on in Gaza, would you join the ruckus, or would you do nothing and let your people remain safe?
Remember, Hamas set in motion this violence, making it responsible for Israel’s retaliation in Gaza. No one wants civilians killed in Gaza, but it is incontestable that Hamas is a terrorist organization. Hamas instigated this current battle. No country can sit still if its enemy sends 2000 rockets into its borders. Seeing these developments, the smart move by Abbas has been to do nothing, and bear the fruit come election time. Moreover, historically, Hamas has bragged about showing that it has hurt and killed Israelis. Well right now that’s probably not working out so well for Hamas. It’s hard to see Hamas’ show of force strengthening its position in the polls.
Given the 2000 rockets, everyone should expect Israel to continue inflicting pain on Hamas. According to a Zoom meeting I participated in yesterday with Elliott Abrams, who has served in numerous senior foreign policy roles for Presidents Reagan, Bush, Trump and now, Biden, Israel intends to put Hamas in its place, perhaps forever. “Hamas has to lose this encounter,” said Abrams. “Biden supports Israel because of its attacks on the Israeli civilian population. Israel knows its new friends (UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia) are watching, as well as Iran. Israel needs to show both its willpower and strength. If Israel tempers itself now, it would show weakness.” Abrams predicted that the fighting would end by early next week. We’ll see.
Now it looks like this mess should help Fatah come election time. If so, while Fatah is known for its vast corruption, long term it can help the Palestinian people more than Hamas. As to Israel’s next election, no one can rule out that Netanyahu’s show of strength might keep him in power. Regardless, this is all very unfortunate. Peace between Israel and the Palestinians could be attainable, maybe even with the two-state solution. It’s wrong to think that most Palestinians would rather fight with Israel than achieve a peace that provides better economic, educational and other opportunities for their families. Perhaps this present mess might actually provide opportunity for the Israeli Palestinians to be taken care of better and integrated more into Israel’s culture, which most people don’t realize already has been happening for years. Also, earlier this week in Israel a new centrist lawmaker, Yair Lapid has been given the opportunity to form a new Israeli government. Let’s hope he can do so, and maybe that will be a step in the right direction to solve a problem that has seemed unfixable.